EIA Predicts Rising Natural Gas Production on Strength of Permian, Haynesville Growth

by DailyBriefers
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The Permian Basin and Haynesville Shale are expected to spur an overall increase in natural gas production among seven key U.S. producing regions in August, according to updated projections from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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The agency said in its latest Drilling Productivity Report, released Monday, that it expects natural gas output from seven key producing regions in the U.S. onshore to climb to 85.506 Bcf/d in August, up 46 MMcf/d from 85.460 Bcf/d in July.

The seven regions included in EIA’s DPR data are the Anadarko, Appalachia and Permian basins, along with the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Niobrara shales. Among the seven plays, growth from the Haynesville (up 145 MMcf/d) and the Permian (up 46 MMcf/d) is expected to offset declining production from the other regions.

The Anadarko (down 55 MMcf/d), Appalachia (down 13 MMcf/d), Bakken (down 48 MMcf/d), Eagle Ford (down 7 MMcf/d) and Niobrara (down 22 MMcf/d) are set to see falling output from July to August, according to the DPR.

Oil production from the seven regions, meanwhile, is expected to rise by 42,000 b/d from July to August to reach just over 7.9 million b/d, the agency said. The Permian is expected to be the main driver of output growth, adding a projected 53,000 b/d of production month/month, with Appalachia contributing an incremental 2,000 b/d of output for the period.

Monthly declines in oil production are projected for the Anadarko (down 3,000 b/d), Bakken (down 3,000 b/d), Eagle Ford (down 4,000 b/d) and Niobrara (down 3,000 b/d), the DPR data show.

The total number of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUC) across the seven regions fell by 269 to 6,252 from May to June, according to EIA. The Permian drew down its DUC count by 123 month/month to 2,475. The Anadarko (down 19), Appalachia (down 17), Bakken (down 28), Eagle Ford (down 41) and Niobrara (down 41) also drew down their respective DUC backlogs from May to June. Total Haynesville DUC went unchanged at 392 during the period.

New-well natural gas production per rig across the seven regions is projected to decline by a rig-weighted average of 148 Mcf/d from July to August. The rig-weighted average of new-well oil production is expected to increase by 8 b/d per rig for the seven plays over the same period.

EIA’s DPR makes use of recent rig data along with drilling productivity estimates and estimated changes in production from existing wells to model changes in production from the seven regions. 

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